Macro | Global Strategy & Investment Trends en-US http://www.dinl.net http://www.dinl.net/images/Logo_DINL_RSS.gif http://www.dinl.net 144 31 2008-07-23 18:04:10 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/chartOfTheWeek.php5?id=49 this little blog is simply my tool to remind myself and any readers of my thoughts and anything else I deem important - more extensive charts and/or analysis takes place in the GMR Newsletter. This blog is periodic but usually updated once or twice a week. * a democratic President and Congress may try to socialize the credit crunch losses with higher taxes and spending programs --> puts more pressure on US Dollar. I see $1.63 to Euro in next months * Jim Rogers is right : Bernanke ... blogDINL Mon, 21 Jul 2008 13:04:22 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/chartOfTheWeek.php5?id=48 this little blog is simply my tool to remind myself and any readers of my thoughts and anything else I deem important - more extensive charts and/or analysis takes place in the GMR Newsletter. This blog is periodic but usually updated once or twice a week. * Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan, now has said he sees more serious market conditions going forward * Goldman Sachs has exited the IIF (Inst. for International Finance) - likely GS books are not "clean" and does not want to ... blogDINL Thu, 10 Jul 2008 09:33:08 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/chartOfTheWeek.php5?id=47 this little blog is simply my tool to remind myself and any readers of my thoughts and anything else I deem important - more extensive charts and/or analysis takes place in the GMR Newsletter. This blog is periodic but usually updated once or twice a week. * As I predicted a number of times in the newsletter, many smaller US banks are now facing bankruptcy * PIMCOs Bill Gross in his recent July note, has stated - facetiously or not - that the US should double its budget deficit in order blogDINL Thu, 03 Jul 2008 10:52:02 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/chartOfTheWeek.php5?id=46 this little blog is simply my tool to remind myself and any readers of my thoughts and anything else I deem important - more extensive charts and/or analysis takes place in the GMR Newsletter. This blog is periodic but usually updated once or twice a week. * Germany wins semifinal game against Turkey 3:2 in UEFA European Championship (was the highlight of my evening) * a news release out yesterday, hard to believe in a so-called highly developed economy, that now 25% of Germans are ... blogDINL Thu, 26 Jun 2008 08:32:40 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/chartOfTheWeek.php5?id=45 this little blog is simply my tool to remind myself and any readers of my thoughts and anything else I deem important - more extensive charts and/or analysis takes place in the GMR Newsletter. This blog is periodic but usually updated once or twice a week. * As I have written about before, many medium and even larger US banks are facing major losses if not bankruptcy due to the subprime meltdown - the Fed is no longer able to stem the tide financially. * Reiteration : get Gold and ... blogDINL Wed, 25 Jun 2008 06:39:26 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/chartOfTheWeek.php5?id=44 this little blog is simply my tool to remind myself and any readers of my thoughts and anything else I deem important - more extensive charts and/or analysis takes place in the GMR Newsletter. This blog is periodic but usually updated once or twice a week. * Germany : Business Indicator Ifo index points to pessimistic outlook amongst companies, Wages are being "eaten up" by inflation in Euroland - consumers are broadly pessimistic on effects of food inflation, energy costs and ... blogDINL Mon, 23 Jun 2008 23:59:18 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/chartOfTheWeek.php5?id=43 this little blog is simply my tool to remind myself and any readers of my thoughts and anything else I deem important - more extensive charts and/or analysis takes place in the GMR Newsletter and GMR Flashes. Usually, this blog is updated periodically throughout the day. * US needs to revamp its entire infrastructure : This should provide opportunity in the areas of renewable energy, public transport systems, automobile sector needs to offer the "right" cars, homes need ... blogDINL Mon, 09 Jun 2008 13:11:25 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/chartOfTheWeek.php5?id=42 this little blog is simply my tool to remind myself and any readers of my thoughts and anything else I deem important - more extensive charts and/or analysis takes place in the GMR Newsletter and GMR Flashes. Usually, this blog is updated periodically throughout the day. * * Today is the 10th anniversary of the European Central Bank - now, although the ECB seems to be doing rather well and the Euro along with it, I do have some serious inflation doubts. The official inflation rate ... blogDINL Mon, 02 Jun 2008 12:24:04 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/outlook.php5?id=48 Weekly Outlook Wed, 16 Jul 2008 12:38:34 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/outlook.php5?id=47 Weekly Outlook Thu, 19 Jun 2008 14:36:10 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/outlook.php5?id=46 Weekly Outlook Thu, 19 Jun 2008 14:29:55 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/outlook.php5?id=45 Weekly Outlook Tue, 20 May 2008 15:17:40 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/outlook.php5?id=44 Weekly Outlook Fri, 29 Feb 2008 17:27:33 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/latestLetter.php5?id=157 FLASHes are simply meant to "tweak" our thinking - and keep some relevant parameters in mind … may not always include a full analysis, but may. As I have already talked about in my blog at the homepage, here are a number of issues - let's take a look a bit closer. But firstly, here are a few more puzzle pieces - the market makers are no longer in control. - 1. China's inflation accelerated to the quickest pace in more than 11 years after the worst snowstorms in half ... Latest Letter Wed, 20 Feb 2008 07:41:20 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/outlook.php5?id=43 Weekly Outlook Tue, 19 Feb 2008 13:17:51 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/latestLetter.php5?id=156 FLASHes are simply meant to "tweak" our thinking - and keep some relevant parameters in mind … may not always include a full analysis, but may. In the beer-houses and backstreet parlours of Berlin and Zurich we've been kicking around a few contrarian ideas - obviously we often attract abhorent stares and gazes of outright heresy. One of those monstrous ideas is that of a revived US Dollar. Should we give this idea credence ? Well, the world's reserve currency - for lack of Latest Letter Wed, 23 Jan 2008 22:37:30 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/outlook.php5?id=42 Weekly Outlook Wed, 23 Jan 2008 13:12:13 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2045   * The USD strengthens on hawkish Fed comments * CZK drops with 2.5 % against EUR * Today’s main events: BoE minutes (GBP), Fed’s Beige Book (USD), Rate announcement from the RBNZ (NZD)   read more: (0.1 MB) Café DINL: Beans - Pedersen & Varming Wed, 23 Jul 2008 07:41:14 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2044 Hurricane Dolly invigorates oil. Copper higher despite end to strike. CD - Dolly invigorates oil Café DINL: Espresso - Kirsti RingJensen Tue, 22 Jul 2008 12:22:31 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2043 Speculative investors added significantly to their net short dollar positions in the week 8-15 July - which was also the week when EUR/USD reached a new record high. Net short USD positions rose to USD 20.4bn, which is the largest net short position since mid-March. Short dollar positions were added against JPY in particular, and net JPY positions went from close to neutral to the largest net long position of the G10 currencies. Meanwhile, net long EUR positions were kept broadly ... Café DINL: Caffè Latte - KasparKirkegaard Tue, 22 Jul 2008 12:20:19 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2042 A busy week in terms of newsflow is coming to its end. Credit spreads have remained more or less stable compared to last week but equity markets have seen hefty volatility. The US treasury stated that it will support Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Q2 reports from large US banks are a mixed bag. In the Nordic region Q2 reports from the large Nordic banks continue to surprise on the positive side. Weekly Credit Strategy Update Café DINL: Caffè Latte - HenrikArnt Tue, 22 Jul 2008 12:02:54 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2046   * American Express announced their earnings in the after-market and they were worse than expected putting pressure on the US dollar. * Wearing our macroeconomic and risk-aversion goggles make us more bearish on AUD in the longer term. * Returns have so far been very good in July.   read more: (0.1 MB) Café DINL: Beans - Pedersen & Varming Tue, 22 Jul 2008 07:43:08 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2041 (0.3 MB) Café DINL: Beans - ConradSchuller Mon, 21 Jul 2008 09:59:18 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2040 * The British pound traded weaker in the beginning of the European session. Short term we are quite bearish on the pound, but we are still waiting for the timing to be right for a short GBP strategy. * As the macroeconomic calendar is quite empty today, the focus will as last week remain at the earnings announcement from the financial industry. * We expect unchanged key rate in Hungary today. read more: (0.1 MB) Café DINL: Beans - Pedersen & Varming Mon, 21 Jul 2008 09:52:27 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2039 Last week was one of the weakest weeks for oil. No immediate solution to Iran conflict. Soy bean prices are falling due to scrapped export duties - we recommend selling. CD - Oil - its weakest week to date Café DINL: Espresso - Kirsti RingJensen Mon, 21 Jul 2008 09:01:21 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2038 * , upping political pressure on the euro zone's central bank as it struggles to damp rising inflation amid signs of slowing economic growth. (WSJ) * still seem to be attracting demand from this critical constituency in the investment world. Thursday, Freddie said foreign investors -- mostly from Asia and Europe -- provided two-thirds of the bids for a $3 billion issue of notes that mature in two years. More than 85% of the foreign bidders were central banks, which invest much of their ... Café DINL: Cappuccino - JackCrooks Fri, 18 Jul 2008 17:15:24 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2037 Oil - USD 120 a barrel within reach. GDP growth in China slowed further in Q2. CD - Oil - USD 120 a barrel within reach Café DINL: Espresso - JacobJensen Fri, 18 Jul 2008 08:42:18 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2036 * Futures on US stock indices turned red as Merrill Lynch announced disappointing 2nd quarter results after the closing bell rang on Wall Street * The Turkish central bank hikes with another 50 basis points – but less hawkish. * Today’s events: 2nd quarter results from Citigroup Inc, Trade balance (EUR), Producer prices (PLN) read more: (0.1 MB) Café DINL: Beans - Pedersen & Varming Fri, 18 Jul 2008 06:42:06 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2031 Consumer prices surprised significantly on the upside in June. Annual core inflation rose to 2.4% from 2.3% in May. Headline inflation jumped to 5.0% from 4.2% in May, which is the highest level since 1991 US: A June inflation outburst Café DINL: Caffè Latte - PeterAndersen Thu, 17 Jul 2008 23:45:16 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2035 * (Bloomberg) * (Bloomberg) * as Traders Raise Bets on Rate Cuts (Bloomberg) * (Financial Times) "A lowering of the gross market rate of interest as brought about by credit expansion always has the effect of making some projects appear profitable which did not appear before … "However conditions may be, it is certain that no manipulations of the banks can provide the economic system with capital goods. What is needed for a sound expansion of production is addition capital ... Café DINL: Cappuccino - John R.Crooks III Thu, 17 Jul 2008 18:10:48 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2034 (pdf 0.2 MB) Café DINL: Beans - Per-ErikKarlsson Thu, 17 Jul 2008 14:31:01 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2033 Risk aversion is tough on NOK at present. We recommend buying EUR/NOK towards 813.76, stop-loss at 799. read more: Café DINL: Beans - HelleVarming Thu, 17 Jul 2008 14:29:15 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2032 For the second consecutive day, oil was sent sharply down. CD - From BUY! to SELL! in the oil market  Café DINL: Caffè Latte - JacobJensen Thu, 17 Jul 2008 14:08:56 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2030 Final Euroland HICP for June confirmed the flash estimate of a 4.0% y/y increase in consumer prices. Inspecting the detailed numbers we find no convincing signs of any significant pick-up in overall underlying inflation. Euroland: Headline inflation is high but core is still contained Café DINL: Caffè Latte - SørenDijohn Thu, 17 Jul 2008 08:43:38 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2028 The minutes of the June 24-25 monetary policy meeting suggest increasing evidence of disagreement between the hawks and the doves in the FOMC. In several passages of the text the disagreement among the members is stated in an exceptionally explicit way. FOMC: Hawks and doves in bird-fight Café DINL: Caffè Latte - PeterAndersen Thu, 17 Jul 2008 08:41:03 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2027 * Markets made a U-turn as Wells Fargo reported on higher than expected profits in the second quarter * EM: Finally, the good news trumps the bad * Today’s main events: Jobless claims (USD), Rate announcement from Turkey (TRY), 2nd quarter earnings from Merrill Lynch, JP Morgan and Bank of New York read more: (0.1 MB) Café DINL: Beans - Pedersen & Varming Thu, 17 Jul 2008 07:08:25 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2029 Although the German economy is in relatively good shape, it cannot shield itself from deteriorating export markets. Investments cannot fill the gap, as they are very sensitive to exports, and consumers are suffering from the current high inflation rates, which are eroding purchasing power. Thus the German economy is facing a tough time. Germany: Recession looming Café DINL: Caffè Latte - SørenDijohn Wed, 16 Jul 2008 23:42:17 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2306 In the last 15 years or so, as a society we have had access to more information than ever before in modern history because of the Internet. There are approximately 1 billion Internet users in the world and any one of these users can theoretically communicate in real time with any other on the planet. The Internet has been the greatest technological achievement of the 20th century by far, and has been recognized as such by the global community. The free transfer of information, uncensored, ... Guest Article: KevinParkinson Wed, 23 Jul 2008 08:23:17 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2305 Firstly, a flight away from common Dow stocks to Gold Stocks: (The following charts show relative performance of asset classes to each other. That is, when the chart is falling the first asset class (DOW) is underperforming against the second (Gold Stocks). The remainder of 2008 looks set to be very bullish for Gold Stocks and Gold Stock Juniors in particular! More commentary and stock picks follow for subscribers… Guest Article: ChrisVermeulen Wed, 23 Jul 2008 07:52:28 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2304 Money served throughout history as a medium of exchange and as a storehouse of value. But when gold and silver coins were replaced by paper currencies, money no longer was the same. Paper money, no longer having intrinsic value, now functions only as a medium of exchange, a function that degrades over time. The value of paper money continually loses value because the constant printing of paper money constantly dilutes the value of previously printed money. The more paper money printed, the ... Guest Article: Darryl RobertSchoon Tue, 22 Jul 2008 22:07:57 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2303 I took the opportunity last week to offer a big picture review since it was clear we were at an important area in the major stock indices and, even though it avoided the specificity available to paying members, hopefully it kept readers from seeing a trap door early this week and shorting a bottom. This one is offerred as a follow-up on last week's call for a bottom in banks, a top in oil with a rally in stocks. And, of course, the question everyone wants answered now is whether there ... Guest Article: Dominick Mon, 21 Jul 2008 10:21:18 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2302 My initial rationale for seeing a top in gold earlier this year was the announcement of the taf and other subsequent lending facilities which seemed to put some teeth in bernanke's inflation-fighting rhetoric by giving the fed a more precise tool in targeting the credit crisis without the blunt force trauma of significantly lower interest rates -- even if the effective rate was frequently below the target. With the extent of the damage to the real economy uncertain and potentially benign, Guest Article: Oroborean Mon, 21 Jul 2008 10:15:47 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2301 That's right: the long-awaited Mania stage in gold may be nigh. How can I make such a claim? After all, some have been screaming "It's here! It's here!" for months or even years. So I propose that instead of simply declaring that Mania time is near, I lay out the facts and see if you come to the same conclusion. First, let's agree on the personality of a Mania. A Mania begins with a fleeing or panic from customary investments toward what seems to be the asset of ... Guest Article: JeffClark Mon, 21 Jul 2008 10:08:55 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2300 said Chris Vermeulen. Vermeulen is a veteran trader of gold and oil who makes his methods and insights available to others via his website at . He provides traders with unparalleled gold and oil trading analysis, signals and 24/7 trading email support. Unlike other sites, Vermeulen is a one man operation. He personally develops all his information, and then makes himself available to individually assist subscribers. "I don't want an employee handing out advice while I'm ... Guest Article: ChrisVermeulen Sat, 19 Jul 2008 12:57:37 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2299 Housing starts rose 9% and the market cheerleaders proclaimed that we have seen a bottom. But not if you look at the actual numbers. New unemployment claims were OK, but not if you look at the actual numbers. And inflation was simply ugly, no matter what numbers you look at. However, oil is down and there is reason to think it may have further to go on the downside. We cover all this and more, as we first look at why the world is not going to end. It is easy to find bad news these days, and ... Guest Article: JohnMauldin Sat, 19 Jul 2008 12:30:00 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2298 This week, with the nation’s financial infrastructure crumbling before our very eyes, the nation’s top two economic policy makers made their way to the Congress for an extraordinary episode of political theater. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the quasi-government entities that form the backbone of America’s gargantuan mortgage market, appeared to be cracking. To the somewhat bewildered members of Congress, Ben Bernanke and Henry Paulson offered radical remedies to save the ... Guest Article: PeterSchiff Fri, 18 Jul 2008 16:36:56 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2297 Given the economic and financial market "challenges" of the past year, some pundits and politicians are concluding that these challenges are the result of the failure of free markets. I would respond that we cannot determine whether free markets have failed unless we have had free markets. I do not think we have. One of the most important markets in an economy is the market for credit. We do not have free markets in credit in the U.S. or anywhere else that I know of. The price of ... Guest Article: Paul L.Kasriel Fri, 18 Jul 2008 08:42:16 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2296 As many of you know, I use many different methods to achieve my trading signals but one of the most important is the measurement of TIME. We have always had the quote from W.D. Gann as the banner on this newsletter, As I have pointed out before, TIME can be measured in many ways. Sometimes I measure in trading days and sometimes it is in calendar days whilst other times I am measuring Fibonacci ratios of previous waves in time to give us projections for possible dates for change of direction. Guest Article: Ron Rosen and Alistair Gilbert Fri, 18 Jul 2008 08:22:25 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2295 This week, we were treated to strong statements by both Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke about the desirability of a “strong dollar”, and the intention of policy makers to pursue strategies that will enhance its value. To the relief of many, the dollar responded to the moral support and managed a mild rally. The move is inconsequential. The harsh realities have not changed in the slightest, and the dollar is set to continue its overall decline. ... Guest Article: JohnBrowne Fri, 18 Jul 2008 08:05:36 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2294 Parasitoidism is the relationship between a host and parasite where the host is ultimately killed by the parasite. This is what is happening to the US. Once the most powerful and productive economy in the world, the US, indebted by bankers and government spending beyond its ability to repay, is headed towards sovereign bankruptcy. The recent request by US Treasury Secretary-and more importantly former Chairman and CEO of investment bank Goldman Sachs- Henry Paulson to bail out Fannie Mae and ... Guest Article: Darryl RobertSchoon Wed, 16 Jul 2008 09:39:52 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2293 Just in case you have been on Mars for the last week, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in the U.S. seem to be having some financial trouble. For those outside the U.S., these two private companies are involved in funneling money to the U.S. housing market. Well, funneling might not be the right word. Shoveling, with big ones, might be more appropriate. Now that they are having financial problems a major question must be answered. The shareholders have already had more than a $900 million of market ... Guest Article: Ned W.Schmidt Wed, 16 Jul 2008 06:11:13 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2292 We are at a critical point in the economic history of the United States. I know of no other way to put it. The events of last week were of a character that we've never seen before. On Friday mortgage lender IndyMac Bancorp became the second largest federally insured financial company to fail after it got hit by a bank run. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation took it over. That news may be a big story, but is totally overshadowed right now by the teetering collapse of Fannie Mae and ... Guest Article: MichaelSwanson Mon, 14 Jul 2008 09:59:56 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2291 What if that was the headline for this coming week, a four hundred point move in the S&P? Most likely, you'd be loading up on out of the money puts or calls , looking for the market to close at record highs or down around 800. If you haven't noticed, those looking for a sudden, dramatic collapse in stocks have been thwarted by a slow, persistent drip downward occasionally punctuated by vicious snapback rallies. But what if I told you the S&P 500 did move 400 points? Just last Guest Article: Dominick Mon, 14 Jul 2008 07:24:21 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2290 It seems that with each passing month the estimates for losses in the international banking system keep rising. This time last summer the largest estimates (from credible sources), if memory serves me correct, were around $400 billion, give or take a few months. By the end of the year it was in the neighborhood of twice that. Then last quarter we saw estimates approaching $1 trillion. Last week, the number being broached was $1.6 trillion, by Bridgewater Associates, one of the top, and more ... Guest Article: JohnMauldin Sun, 13 Jul 2008 15:05:39 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2289 Calls for national security to the contrary, America's appetite for energy is stronger than its caution. In the last 15 years, the United States has steadily increased its dependence on imported crude oil by some 60%. Part of the reason is declining production, as displayed in the chart below. Declining production has been matched by the country's declining reserves. A decline that comes against the backdrop of increasingly extraordinary efforts to turn things around, including deep-s Guest Article: MarinKatusa Sun, 13 Jul 2008 14:39:49 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2288 As the price of oil reverses course again and closes in on the unheard of price of $150 per barrel, Americans are finally responding to the pressure and have cut back on gasoline consumption. According to a report this week, Americans used 3.3% less gasoline than at the same time last year and usage now stands at a five-year low. Although the relative merits of slowing energy consumption is a subject upon which reasonable minds can disagree, the drop is nonetheless an extremely rare event in ... Guest Article: PeterSchiff Fri, 11 Jul 2008 18:02:07 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2287 Gold continues to shine as one of the best performing asset classes through the first half of 2008, according to the USAGOLD Annual Survey of Investments. Only the CRB index, which of course includes a gold component, outperformed gold itself over the past year. Arguably it was the latest surge in oil prices that allowed the broad measure of commodities to supplant gold from the number one position over the last month of the second quarter. As encouraging as the coveted bottom of the survey ... Guest Article: PeteGrant Thu, 10 Jul 2008 07:50:25 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2286 Imagine that your neighborhood is overrun by a gang. These brutes are wielding crowbars, knives, and pistols in a frenzied spree of home break-ins and mugging and murder. Now suppose the police reveal that their grand strategy for dealing with this gang is to block them from getting submachine guns--as if without such weapons, the gang would no longer bother people. Or would you be outraged? Of course you would, because this gang--even without more powerful weapons--is already a serious menace Guest Article: ElanJourno Thu, 10 Jul 2008 07:01:56 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2285 We have long warned that stagflation, or economic contraction accompanied by inflation, would become so evident that even the most optimistic observers could not deny its virulence. Last week, Warren Buffet was the latest to describe his encounter with the beast. The world’s most famous investor pronounced that the current economy is in the middle stages of a stagflation episode. Although Mr. Buffet is not typically associated with either bullish or bearish sentiment, he asserted that ... Guest Article: JohnBrowne Thu, 10 Jul 2008 06:58:06 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2284 H.L Mencken once described democracy as “simply a battle of charlatans for the votes of idiots.” Writing in 1937 for the , Mencken theorized that by now “the incurable idiots may conceivably constitute an absolute majority of the population.” Alas, another election season is upon us to prove his prophetic point. Of course, this is about the time democracy fans will throw out the old Churchill saw: “It has been said that democracy is the worst ... Guest Article: DougFrench Tue, 08 Jul 2008 21:21:57 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2283 From its July intraday low to its October 9, 2007 intraday high the DOW has fallen 20.5%. A lot of commentators on television and the Internet are making note of the fact that the DOW is down 20% and saying that this is "bear market territory." Some are saying that this means it is the time to buy, while others are saying this is proof that we are now in a bear market. I don't really believe this is a good way to define a bear market. But let's take a look at some figures ... Guest Article: MichaelSwanson Mon, 07 Jul 2008 19:00:20 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2282 Searching for the Golden Goose? For years we have been speaking and writing about the massive bind the Fed now finds itself in. With price inflation rising - read as food and energy skyrocketing -- and little hope for nominal interest rate increases - read as housing too weak for higher rates - negative Real Interest Rates (nominal rates less inflation) looks set to persist for some time. Now why is that important? Firstly, not only do negative real interest rates make holding non-income ... Guest Article: ChrisVermeulen Mon, 07 Jul 2008 15:56:18 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2281 Here at Casey Research we have been on the record as bearish on the outlook for the economy for some years now. Lest you think that is loose boasting, I can offer proof in Doug Casey's August 2005 article, the dramatically titled "Profiting from the End of Western Civilization". In that article, he looked ahead and saw the inflation that the government's loose money policies made inevitable. A quote… "Of particular importance is that the U.S. dollar has been used as ... 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