Macro | Global Strategy & Investment Trends http://www.dinl.net en-US http://www.dinl.net/images/Logo_DINL_RSS.gif http://www.dinl.net 144 31 Thu, 02 Jul 2009 19:16:58 +0200 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/chartOfTheWeek.php?id=56 * The US "bailout" is now fundamentally out of control- a fictitious $700 bn bailout has now turned into an "all sucking vortex" - some estimate $5 trillion. * Within the last 4 months, new public debt within the US has increased $1.5 trillion with 2 Debt Limit ceilings raised (more inside this update) * Under President Bush, the US public debt has doubled (100% increase) in 8 years from $5.7 trillion to $10.6 trillion (more inside) * My last target for the DOW of 8000 blogDINL Thu, 20 Nov 2008 16:19:01 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/chartOfTheWeek.php?id=56 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/chartOfTheWeek.php?id=55 It is not often that I issue alerts.  This is, however, one of those times. As I stated in the last entry,, the G7 Finance Minister, the IMF, the World Bank, Sec. of the Treasury Paulson, Fed Reserve Chairman have been in Washington D.C. deliberating about the "next steps" for the rolling / ongoing bailout. It looks like it may be a piece-meal bailout with each country to approach it as necessary.  We are told through regulated and filtered press statements, that the reaction ... blogDINL Sun, 12 Oct 2008 11:37:19 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/chartOfTheWeek.php?id=55 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/chartOfTheWeek.php?id=54 resources, lies, gold, bailout, reforms, depression, hyperinflation, central banks ...... * Accumulate gold, silver in physical form - coins, bars, truckloads * As I predicted, we got the rate cuts from EVERYBODY - Central Banks collude to cut * Reflation is now underway * Deflationary tendencies to be fought with EVERYTHING in the arsenal - may lead to hyperinflationary spiral * Confidence in politics, politicians, bankers, paper is lost  --  all were "asleep at the wheel" blogDINL Fri, 10 Oct 2008 10:15:47 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/chartOfTheWeek.php?id=54 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/chartOfTheWeek.php?id=53 * Hard assets accumulate ; mix of juniors, seniors, and physical * UK Bank of England now looks to lower rates ; Euroland likely to follow * Reflation in US likely * How for the US to handle $700 billion bailout + $600 billion Iraq War + $40 billion War on Drugs ?????? * US Housing - what floor ? * In this market, single fundamentals have no importance ; macro global considerations are more important * * * Unfortunately, the amount of work on my desk is piling up incessantly ... blogDINL Wed, 24 Sep 2008 10:27:26 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/chartOfTheWeek.php?id=53 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/chartOfTheWeek.php?id=52 Personal appointments in Berlin, Hamburg, Munich, Frankfurt, Zurich   Fundamental Research • Independent Asset Management * In the GMR Letter I wrote about a foreseen rise in US bankruptcies in the business sector - happening now and likely to get worse before better  √ * * * * * * * My oh my, how the winds of change are blowing.  I've been keeping my head down and following all the pundits' remarks and their mantras of how the system is ... blogDINL Tue, 16 Sep 2008 10:26:37 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/chartOfTheWeek.php?id=52 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/chartOfTheWeek.php?id=51 * Not out of the woods yet with regard to gold and oil - both testing major support areas ; gold could still reatreat to 750 area and be in longer trend channel Geopolitics in Georgia may be worrying for supply of oil as well as power plays in motion * In the GMR Letter I wrote about a foreseen rise in US bankruptcies in the business sector - happening now and likely to get worse before better -- Jackson Hole : what have they achieved ... a guest was from the Japanese Central Bank and told ... blogDINL Tue, 26 Aug 2008 14:41:41 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/chartOfTheWeek.php?id=51 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/chartOfTheWeek.php?id=50 this little blog is simply my tool to remind myself and any readers of my thoughts and anything else I deem important - more extensive charts and/or analysis takes place in the GMR Newsletter. This blog is periodic but usually updated once or twice a week. * In the GMR Letter I wrote about a foreseen rise in US bankruptcies in the business sector - happening now * The banking sector has further losses in the pipeline - we may see hundreds of US banks fail as I warned of in the GMR ... blogDINL Mon, 18 Aug 2008 10:40:58 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/chartOfTheWeek.php?id=50 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/chartOfTheWeek.php?id=49 this little blog is simply my tool to remind myself and any readers of my thoughts and anything else I deem important - more extensive charts and/or analysis takes place in the GMR Newsletter. This blog is periodic but usually updated once or twice a week. * a democratic President and Congress may try to socialize the credit crunch losses with higher taxes and spending programs --> puts more pressure on US Dollar. I see $1.63 to Euro in next months * Jim Rogers is right : Bernanke ... blogDINL Mon, 21 Jul 2008 13:04:22 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/chartOfTheWeek.php?id=49 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/outlook.php?id=57 Weekly Outlook Sat, 28 Feb 2009 11:07:08 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/outlook.php?id=57 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/outlook.php?id=56 Weekly Outlook Tue, 17 Feb 2009 15:07:10 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/outlook.php?id=56 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/outlook.php?id=55 Weekly Outlook Fri, 30 Jan 2009 17:10:30 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/outlook.php?id=55 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/outlook.php?id=54 Weekly Outlook Wed, 21 Jan 2009 14:38:43 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/outlook.php?id=54 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/outlook.php?id=53 Weekly Outlook Mon, 12 Jan 2009 11:11:22 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/outlook.php?id=53 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/outlook.php?id=52 Weekly Outlook Wed, 07 Jan 2009 09:52:40 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/outlook.php?id=52 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/outlook.php?id=51 Weekly Outlook Mon, 05 Jan 2009 09:49:31 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/outlook.php?id=51 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php?id=3038 Buried amid news stories about World Breastfeeding Week, World Suicide Prevention Day and World Rabies Day, the WHO has a small item gving the latest supposed count of "laboratory" confirmed H1N1 cases.  It is something on the order of 55,000 persons worldwide since this April at a factory pig farm in Veracruz, Mexico  a smaill child got ill and thw world was told of a deadly new "Swine Flu" that was alledgedly spreading from pig to person.  Yet the US government is gearing ... Guest Article:F. William Engdahl Thu, 02 Jul 2009 08:04:12 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php?id=3038 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php?id=3037 Why has the stock market been on a 3-month tear when the economy is undergoing the worst economic contraction since the Great Depression? The S&P 500 has shot up 40% from its low on March 9 and the Dow Jones Industrials have followed close behind. Is this a typical bear market rally or is the invisible hand of the Fed goosing the markets? Everyone seems to agree that the Fed's multi-trillion dollar quantitative easing (QE) is the jet-fuel that's put stocks into orbit. But how Guest Article:Mike Whitney Thu, 02 Jul 2009 07:58:34 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php?id=3037 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php?id=3036   editors go even further than this article - One of those investments may be one you€ve never heard of before. Yet it has given our subscribers 54% returns in 2008 – at the same time the common stock market was plummeting. Read our brand-new report here Are we there yet? Are we there yet? We gold bugs are like little kids on a trip to the zoo; we just can€t wait to get there. “There” being the elusive point in time when the gold mania (no, make ... Guest Article:Jeff Clark Thu, 11 Jun 2009 14:40:31 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php?id=3036 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php?id=3035 This week, Team Obama took their dog and pony show on the road. Treasury Secretary Geithner went to China, Fed Chairman Bernanke to Capitol Hill, and the President himself began a Mideast tour in Saudi Arabia. This full-court press is not coincidental, and comes just as the federal government has begun unloading trillions of dollars in new Treasury obligations. The coordinated charm offensive is meant to assure the world-at-large that the United States can repay these obligations ... Guest Article:Peter Schiff Sat, 06 Jun 2009 09:50:16 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php?id=3035 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php?id=3034 Dear Friends: One of the first things you learn about analyzing a company is how to dissect a balance sheet. What assets and liabilities can be deployed by a company to create equity over time? I've enclosed a fascinating variant on this process. Take a look at how STRATFOR has analyzed the "geographic balance sheets" of the US, Russia, China, and Europe to understand why different countries' economies have suffered to varying degrees from the current economic crisis. Guest Article:John Mauldin Fri, 05 Jun 2009 09:52:25 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php?id=3034 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php?id=3033 There is no doubt that the equity markets have been rising in recent weeks. It would be foolish to argue with that fact. There is also no doubt that those who have "played" the rise will have made significant profits during the past few weeks. Indeed, according to the chart below - courtesy Bigcharts.com - the Dow Jones Industrials Index has risen by over 30%. To those who caught that particular wave: Well done! Of course, there is a reason this analyst has chosen to reflect a Guest Article:Brian Bloom Fri, 05 Jun 2009 09:35:04 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php?id=3033 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php?id=3032 This analysis seeks to update the UK Recession Watch (Feb 09) that forecast a recession which would see GDP peak to trough contraction of 6.3% and followed by economic recovery in the fourth quarter of 2009. In conjunction with the economic analysis, this article will also seek to forecast the date of the next general election as well as outcome of the vote in terms of MP seats per major party. The recession to date has seen GDP contraction of 4% which implies that the worst now 'shou Guest Article:Nadeem Walayat Fri, 05 Jun 2009 08:55:03 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php?id=3032 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php?id=3031 Choose your poison: the trickle of excess cash or the trickle of excess bond redemptions... first time the says we gold buyers are "" - a word which all too often follows on from "gold" in the financial media. I should rise above this sort of thing. What does it matter if the thinks me nuts? But I find I'm irritated, both for myself and on the collective behalf of successful gold investors. I don't think we deserve to be called "nuts" after our ... Guest Article:Paul Tustain Thu, 04 Jun 2009 17:12:27 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php?id=3031 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php?id=3030 It is becoming painfully obvious that the Fed, Treasury, and Administration's disastrous recovery plan hinges on the devaluation of the U.S. dollar. Their specious strategy stems from the belief that a falling currency can re-ignite exports and spark a recovery in manufacturing while putting a floor in U.S. asset prices. But just as the President's initials indicate, the plan stinks of B.O. Firstly, a falling currency does nothing to expand a country's exports or domestic ... Guest Article:Michael Pento Thu, 04 Jun 2009 17:11:27 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php?id=3030 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php?id=3029 I thought that I would send out a quick update on the gold sector to show where prices stand from a technical point of view for those of your wondering what to do with today's sell off. Monthly Gold Bugs Index - Gold Stocks This chart clearly shows that gold stocks are at levels, which are creating resistance from previous highs and lows. This chart looks bearish at first glance because of the resistance level, it's important to take into account the MACD and price performance Guest Article:Chris Vermeulen Thu, 04 Jun 2009 10:29:45 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php?id=3029 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php?id=3028 "The True Story of the Bilderberg Group" and What They May Be Planning Now A Review of Daniel Estulin's book For over 14 years, Daniel Estulin has investigated and researched the Bilderberg Group's far-reaching influence on business and finance, global politics, war and peace, and control of the world's resources and its money. His book, "The True Story of the Bilderberg Group," was published in 2005 and is now updated in a new 2009 edition. He states ... Guest Article:Stephen Lendman Thu, 04 Jun 2009 06:41:18 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php?id=3028 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php?id=3027   What if deflation wins? While we think the odds are strongly stacked against it, particularly given the government's furious pace of money printing, the prudent investor understands - and respects - the time-tested adage, "Nothing is guaranteed." So while our chips sit squarely on the spot marked "inflation," what will happen to gold stocks if we're wrong? The most notable example of what happens to gold stocks in a prolonged deflationary environment is ... Guest Article:Jeff Clark Thu, 04 Jun 2009 05:37:27 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php?id=3027 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php?id=3026 I will not keep you in suspense. I believe that the greater risk for the global economy in general and the U.S. economy in particular is inflation, not deflation. I arrive at this conclusion both on secular and cyclical grounds. Let us begin by discussing the secular issues. In the U.S., the Great Inflation of the mid 1970s to early 1980s was counteracted by absolutely and relatively high inflation-adjusted federal funds rates initiated by former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker (see Chart 1). Guest Article:Paul L. Kasriel Wed, 03 Jun 2009 16:46:27 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php?id=3026 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php?id=3025 Yesterday, after a painfully long death spiral, General Motors finally filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. Oftentimes, bankruptcy portends rebirth. Unfortunately, the politically-inspired GM plan holds no such possibilities. Under the current deal, the restructuring of GM will cost taxpayers some $100 billion (after the hidden costs of interest and refinancing are included). Even then, it is highly unlikely that GM will ever be competitive or that its debts will ever be repaid. ... Guest Article:John Browne Wed, 03 Jun 2009 08:58:15 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php?id=3025 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php?id=3024 The charts below quickly give you a visual as to where each commodity is trading in relation to intermediate and short term support and resistance levels, chart patterns and trend lines. Commodities are on the run. Gold is forming an amazing reverse head & shoulders pattern and is about to test resistance. Silver is shining bright as it continues to surge higher out of a solid bull flag pattern. And crude oil continues to make new multi month highs after breaking out of its cup & Guest Article:Chris Vermeulen Mon, 01 Jun 2009 15:06:11 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php?id=3024 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php?id=3023 * This Way Be Dragons * A Housing Update * More Prime Foreclosures In Our Future * Are We Paying Too Much for Health Care? Naples, London, and Home for June In fantasy novels the intrepid heroes come across a sign saying "This Way Be Dragons." Of course, they venture on, facing calamity and death, but such is the nature of fantasy novels. We live in a very real world, and if we don't turn around there will be some very nasty dragons in our future. This week we look ... Guest Article:John Mauldin Sat, 30 May 2009 11:29:04 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php?id=3023 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php?id=3022 During the height of New York City's financial crisis in the 1970's, President Gerald Ford had the good sense to turn down Mayor Abe Beame's request for a federal bailout. The refusal prompted the famous New York Post headline, "Ford to City: Drop Dead." More than 30 years later, as California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger makes a similar plea to Washington, I hope President Obama will show similar restraint. Unfortunately, given Obama's recent string of unwise Guest Article:Peter Schiff Fri, 29 May 2009 19:30:17 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php?id=3022 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php?id=3021 May 28 2009 The USD is in wave b down, currently in wave 5 of (C). We should see further downside before a strong rally in wave c up. Crude is in wave b up, currently in wave 5 of (C). Crude is an excellent example of a bear market correction, since we would want to see at least 3 waves (an abc) complete from the peak. If you are not familiar with Elliott Wave, you can examine the completed decline on any chart that has had a parabolic advance in a so called bubble. The decline ... Guest Article:Dan Stinson Fri, 29 May 2009 10:14:24 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php?id=3021 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php?id=3020 By Doug Hornig, Editor, Tuesday, October 9, 2007 started as a nice day in New York City. A lovely early fall day, with the temperature still a balmy 80° at 2:00 in the morning. By evening, though, the temperature had dropped twenty degrees, the clouds had rolled in, there was thunder and rain. As with the weather, there were some hints of trouble here and there on Wall Street. But all in all, things could not have seemed better. Little did we know, the stormy end of 10/9/07 signaled a Guest Article:Casey Research Team Fri, 29 May 2009 10:09:08 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php?id=3020 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php?id=3019 The technical outlook on the silver market does not look all that strong when looking from a distance. I like to keep eye on the longer term trend lines for possible support and resistance levels which are easily missed if you only follow the daily charts. Silver had an incredibly positive up move since mid of april. After establishing a low around $11.60 over 6 weeks ago it´s up more than 31% as I write this. Gold only went up around 11.5% during the same time. The Gold/Silver Ratio ... Guest Article:Chris Vermeulen Fri, 29 May 2009 10:08:39 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php?id=3019 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php?id=3018 Collapsing home prices and credit markets continue to put downward pressure on consumer spending, forcing the Federal Reserve to take even more radical action to revive the economy. Last week, Fed chief Ben Bernanke raised the prospect of further monetizing the debt by purchasing more than the $1.75 trillion of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) already committed. The announcement sent shock-waves through the currency markets where skittish traders have joined doomsayers in Guest Article:Mike Whitney Thu, 28 May 2009 12:53:18 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php?id=3018 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php?id=3017 "Socialism is the philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance and the gospel of envy," said Winston Churchill. Although it inevitably lowers living standards, socialism feels good - at least at the outset - as "free money" flows in great abundance. Keep this in mind as we examine the "good news" about consumer confidence. Last week, it was reported that consumer confidence has seen an unexpected lift. In response, the sluggish stock market saw a manic 196- Guest Article:John Browne Thu, 28 May 2009 10:00:50 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php?id=3017 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php?id=3016 "Socialism is the philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance and the gospel of envy," said Winston Churchill. Although it inevitably lowers living standards, socialism feels good - at least at the outset - as "free money" flows in great abundance. Keep this in mind as we examine the "good news" about consumer confidence. Last week, it was reported that consumer confidence has seen an unexpected lift. In response, the sluggish stock market saw a manic 196- Guest Article:John Browne Thu, 28 May 2009 09:54:38 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php?id=3016 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php?id=3015 Gold stocks have been performing well but I cannot help but notice that the gold sector has reached a major resistance levels on the monthly chart. As much as I would like gold stocks to continue higher we must be ready for a pullback. I have moved my stops higher to lock in profits from the recent rally in price. If the price breaks down from here I will be sitting in cash having made a decent profit, and I waiting for the next low risk entry point buy or short gold. You can see ... Guest Article:Chris Vermeulen Thu, 28 May 2009 09:49:10 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php?id=3015 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php?id=3014 First, we wish to state for the record that there is no meaningful difference in the intermediate and long-term market opinions held by the astute Mr. Prechter and those held by this analyst. Secondly, we would like to note that we hold the utmost respect for Mr. Prechter€s talents, skills, contributions, and achievements in both his publishing empire, and in his eloquent and brilliant sharing of Elliott Wave Theory. Without Mr. Prechter, this analyst would not exist in this ... Guest Article:Joseph Russo Thu, 28 May 2009 09:48:25 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php?id=3014 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php?id=3013 This week we look at a number of charts of various parts of the credit markets to see what kind of progress is being made on getting back to "normal" or to a "new normal." And my friend Prieur du Plessis shows us there is reason to believe that we have seen the worst. "This too shall pass" are words we should all take to heart. Things will neither stay on permanently high or low plateaus. Those doom and gloomers who expect the world to keep devolving back to Guest Article:John Mauldin Tue, 26 May 2009 23:32:17 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php?id=3013 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php?id=3104 Café DINL: Beans -Morten Lykke Pedersen Thu, 11 Jun 2009 13:12:36 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php?id=3104 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php?id=3103 There was every indication that commodity prices would fall on Wednesday when US equities closed the trading session marginally into negative territory while the dollar strengthened a bit but specific news relating to crude oil and soy beans meant increases in these markets. The US crude oil inventories fell surprisingly by 4.4 million barrels. It had been expected that inventories would have been at more or less unchanged levels. In a report from the US Department of ... Café DINL: Espresso -Casper Andersen Thu, 11 Jun 2009 13:08:02 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php?id=3103 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php?id=3102 Short dollar positions have suffered in the past week, as the green-back staged a decent correction of the recent weeks' sell-off. Recently, however, the dollar has become increasingly correlated with the price of oil and short-term interest rates, and this could pose upside risks to EUR/USD. However, our short-term model continues to point to downside potential for the pair in the near term. We also look at how the recent concerns over the situation in the Baltics have changed ... Café DINL: Caffè Latte -Sverre Holbek Thu, 11 Jun 2009 13:05:13 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php?id=3102 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php?id=3101 Despite a weaker-than-expected development in May, the overall picture remains that exports have bottomed out. Imports roared ahead driven by strong domestic demand and commodity stock building. China: Just what the doctor ordered Café DINL: Caffè Latte -Flemming Nielsen Thu, 11 Jun 2009 13:03:44 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php?id=3101 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php?id=3100 Fixed asset investment data for May (released today) were much stronger than expected. Together with soaring home and car sales, they suggest that domestic demand in China is currently very strong. Next year there is likely to be a need to rebalance economic policy in China to prevent another asset bubble developing. China: Domestic demand roaring ahead Café DINL: Caffè Latte -Flemming Nielsen Thu, 11 Jun 2009 13:02:29 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php?id=3100 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php?id=3099 Weekly Credit Update Café DINL: Caffè Latte -Henrik Arnt Fri, 05 Jun 2009 05:55:23 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php?id=3099 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php?id=3098 Today we got details on the covered bond purchases and some negative staff projections - too negative we think. ECB meeting: Positive signals ignored Café DINL: Caffè Latte -Frank Hansen Fri, 05 Jun 2009 05:54:11 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php?id=3098 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php?id=3097 Key News Bill Gross: who is going to buy all this US debt? Citywire.co.uk ECB Keeps Benchmark Rate Unchanged, Is Unlikely to Signal Further Stimulus (Bloomberg)   Key Reports Due (WSJ): 8:30 a.m. Initial Jobless Claims For May 30 Week: Expected: -3K. Previous: -13K. 8:30 a.m. 1Q Productivity: Expected: +1.2%. Previous: +0.8%. 8:30 a.m. 1Q Labor Costs: Expected: +2.9%. Previous: +3.3%. 10:00 a.m. DJ-BTMU Business Barometer For May 23: Previous: -0.2%. 10:30 a.m. ... Café DINL: Cappuccino -John R. Crooks III Thu, 04 Jun 2009 17:05:28 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php?id=3097 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php?id=3096 Profit-taking in risky assets made headlines on Wednesday as several commodities fell sharply. This still indicates that the most recent increases were very much caused by investor flows. The crude oil inventories in the US increased unexpectedly by 2.8 mbpd. A decline of about 1 million barrels had been expected (Reuters). Market Drivers will not be published Friday due to Constitution Day Café DINL: Espresso -Casper Andersen Thu, 04 Jun 2009 09:57:09 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php?id=3096 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php?id=3095 Good morning, SEK under continued pressure due to renewed concerns about the situation in the Baltic countries. The negative sentiment affects NOK, which weakened by about 1.5% against EUR over the day yesterday. Today we will see interest-rate announcements from the ECB as well as BoE. We expect the rates to be kept unchanged in the UK as well as the euro zone. Today's other events: retail sales (EUR), weekly job figures (USD), press conference (EUR) Café DINL: Beans -Pedersen & Varming Thu, 04 Jun 2009 09:55:06 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php?id=3095 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php?id=3094 European consumer spending and exports contracted the most in at least 14 years in the first quarter (Bloomberg) German Chancellor Angela Merkel, in a rare public rebuke of central banks, suggested the European Central Bank and its counterparts in the U.S. and Britain have gone too far in fighting the financial crisis and may be laying the groundwork for another financial blowup. (WSJ) Australia's economy unexpectedly eked out growth of 0.4 percent in the first quarter. (AP Café DINL: Cappuccino -Jack Crooks Wed, 03 Jun 2009 16:31:06 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php?id=3094 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php?id=3093 We expect the ECB to keep the refinancing rate unchanged at 1.0%. The governing council seems reluctant to go below 1% even with inflation at 0% and falling. We expect the policy rates to be kept unchanged for the next 12 months. ECB staff growth projections will be revised down to slightly below -4% for 2009, but might be revised slightly up for 2010. Inflation projections are likely to be almost unchanged, although a slight upward revision in 2010 is a possibility. The focus will be ... Café DINL: Caffè Latte -Frank Hansen Wed, 03 Jun 2009 13:44:19 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php?id=3093 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php?id=3092 No clear direction was seen during yesterday€s trading session. Generally commodities closed a bit lower at almost unchanged levels despite the continued substantial weakening of the dollar. However, gold edged higher and continued this morning The indicators for US pending home sales were more positive than expected, but commodities were also affected by profit-taking following the very drastic increases on Monday. Café DINL: Espresso -Casper Andersen Wed, 03 Jun 2009 09:10:20 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php?id=3092 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php?id=3091 Once again USD came under pressure on Tuesday in the wake of statements to the effect that the Russians will put a supra-national currency, a “global currency” on the agenda at the summit of the BRIC countries later on this month. For quite some time GBP has been favoured by the general optimism in the financial markets. However, 85.50 for EURGBP should offer support in the short term. * Today€s economic indicators: PMI service (EUR, GBP), ADP employment (USD) Café DINL: Beans -Pedersen & Varming Wed, 03 Jun 2009 09:06:48 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php?id=3091 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php?id=3090 Despite a small decline in the official PMI, today's manufacturing PMIs overall suggest that the manufacturing recovery in China remains firmly in place. Growth in industrial production should pick up in coming months and is likely to return to significantly above 10% y/y in H2. Peoples Bank of China is unlikely to cut its leading interest rate further and is likely to be one of the first central banks to tighten monetary policy next year. China: PMIs still suggest recovery Café DINL: Caffè Latte -Flemming Nielsen Wed, 03 Jun 2009 08:06:50 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php?id=3090 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php?id=3089 The ISM manufacturing index breached the 42 level in May, indicating that the overall US economy is expanding again. USA: ISM heading higher Café DINL: Caffè Latte -Signe Roed-Frederiksen Wed, 03 Jun 2009 08:04:03 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php?id=3089 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php?id=3087 We are closing our G10 recovery basket trade (long AUD, NZD, CAD vs. short JPY, CHF, EUR) for a 5.23% profit (including carry). FX - Take profit on G10 recovery basket Café DINL: Caffè Latte -Kaspar Kirkegaard Wed, 03 Jun 2009 08:00:10 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php?id=3087 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php?id=3088 In this edition of FX Market Update we look at recent spot movements, consider the rise in front-end implied volatilities, and show that compared to price movements on other financial markets the recent strong rally in the commodity currencies is looking increasingly overdone. Furthermore, we suggest a strategy to position for what looks like a stretched run higher in GBP/NOK. FX Market Update - week 23 Café DINL: Caffè Latte -Sverre Holbek Wed, 03 Jun 2009 07:01:17 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php?id=3088 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php?id=3086 doesn't buy what it used to – not for non-US investors, at least. Back in March 2008, when the first broke $1,000 an ounce, the Euro equivalent peaked just shy of €660. Sterling investors here in the UK saw the price touch £515 an ounce. Yes, both of those figures – like the USD gold price – were then new record highs. But come the next test of $1,000 per ounce, four months ago in Feb. 2009, the Euro price reached 20% higher to touch &eur Café DINL: Cappuccino -Adrian Ash Tue, 02 Jun 2009 16:13:36 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php?id=3086 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php?id=3085 (Bloomberg) “You have no enemies, you say? Alas, my friend, the boast is poor. He who has mingled in the fray of duty that the brave endure, must have made foes. If you have none, small is the work that you have done. You've hit no traitor on the hip. You've dashed no cup from perjured lip. You've never turned the wrong to right. You've been a coward in the fight.” Charles MacKay Ok, we€ve mentioned this once or twice ... Café DINL: Cappuccino -John R. Crooks III Tue, 02 Jun 2009 13:55:26 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php?id=3085 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php?id=3084 Good morning Sharp price rises for most commodities. Oil increased by 3.4%, wheat by 6.0% and copper by 6.8%. The primary reasons are the rising equity markets and the weak dollar but also positive economic indicators from China, the US as well as Europe supported prices, particularly in respect of industrial metals that saw the steepest increases. The International Energy Agency and the US Secretary of Energy commented yesterday on the negative effect that an increase in the oil price may ... Café DINL: Espresso -Casper Andersen Tue, 02 Jun 2009 09:26:33 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php?id=3084 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php?id=3083 Good morning, * USD has weakened markedly in recent days – however, so far EURUSD has seen resistance at about the 100-week moving average (currently 142.40, equalling 5.26 for USDDKK) * With respect to economic indicators we are in for an eventful week that will, among other things, offer ISM service, employment report from the US as well as interest-rate announcements from the ECB and BoE * Today€s economic indicators: PMI (NOK), unemployment (EUR), pending home sales (US Café DINL: Beans -Pedersen & Varming Tue, 02 Jun 2009 09:24:49 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php?id=3083 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/link.php?id=26582 Currencies & Commodities Thu, 02 Jul 2009 16:09:16 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/link.php?id=26582 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/link.php?id=26576 Currencies & Commodities Thu, 02 Jul 2009 12:57:57 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/link.php?id=26576 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/link.php?id=26560 Currencies & Commodities - UK Wed, 01 Jul 2009 15:12:52 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/link.php?id=26560 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/link.php?id=26556 Currencies & Commodities Wed, 01 Jul 2009 14:47:54 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/link.php?id=26556 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/link.php?id=26554 Currencies & Commodities Wed, 01 Jul 2009 14:43:13 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/link.php?id=26554 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/link.php?id=26553 !!!!!! implosion Currencies & Commodities Wed, 01 Jul 2009 14:35:31 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/link.php?id=26553 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/link.php?id=26552 Currencies & Commodities Wed, 01 Jul 2009 14:28:55 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/link.php?id=26552 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/link.php?id=26551 Currencies & Commodities - Video Wed, 01 Jul 2009 14:25:38 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/link.php?id=26551 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/link.php?id=26539 Currencies & Commodities Wed, 01 Jul 2009 08:11:48 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/link.php?id=26539 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/link.php?id=26538 Currencies & Commodities - Video Wed, 01 Jul 2009 08:11:06 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/link.php?id=26538 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/link.php?id=26555 Currencies & Commodities Tue, 30 Jun 2009 23:46:06 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/link.php?id=26555 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/link.php?id=26535 Currencies & Commodities Tue, 30 Jun 2009 15:47:45 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/link.php?id=26535 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/link.php?id=26588 Tech & Big Brother - TrueWealth Thu, 02 Jul 2009 16:31:29 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/link.php?id=26588 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/link.php?id=26584 cool Tech & Big Brother - TechCity Thu, 02 Jul 2009 16:15:41 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/link.php?id=26584 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/link.php?id=26572 Tech & Big Brother - Video Thu, 02 Jul 2009 12:39:28 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/link.php?id=26572 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/link.php?id=26550 Obamadom Tech & Big Brother - Video Wed, 01 Jul 2009 14:04:44 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/link.php?id=26550 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/link.php?id=26549 Tech & Big Brother - Video Wed, 01 Jul 2009 13:58:28 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/link.php?id=26549 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/link.php?id=26579 Tech & Big Brother - BB UK Wed, 01 Jul 2009 13:18:35 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/link.php?id=26579 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/link.php?id=26573 Tech & Big Brother - Audio Wed, 01 Jul 2009 12:40:48 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/link.php?id=26573 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/link.php?id=26548 Obamageddon ... we told you so Tech & Big Brother - Video Wed, 01 Jul 2009 09:37:46 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/link.php?id=26548 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/link.php?id=26547 I know, I know Tech & Big Brother - CareerKiller Wed, 01 Jul 2009 09:18:25 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/link.php?id=26547 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/link.php?id=26546 Tech & Big Brother - NWO BB EU Wed, 01 Jul 2009 09:16:49 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/link.php?id=26546 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/link.php?id=26559 Tech & Big Brother - :-) Tue, 30 Jun 2009 23:03:28 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/link.php?id=26559 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/link.php?id=26534 total agreement Tech & Big Brother - Thought Tue, 30 Jun 2009 15:41:16 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/link.php?id=26534 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/link.php?id=26533 BS - you gotta love it Tech & Big Brother - I love this Tue, 30 Jun 2009 15:40:21 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/link.php?id=26533 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/link.php?id=26586 News German - But it's a "strong economy" ... right Thu, 02 Jul 2009 16:19:05 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/link.php?id=26586 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/link.php?id=26585 €442 billion lent - no credit News German - As told in GMR Letter Thu, 02 Jul 2009 16:16:29 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/link.php?id=26585 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/link.php?id=26583 6th largest economy - IOUs - no $ left News German - Unravelling Thu, 02 Jul 2009 16:11:08 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/link.php?id=26583 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/link.php?id=26544 News German Wed, 01 Jul 2009 08:34:25 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/link.php?id=26544 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/link.php?id=26542 News German - EU Vertrag Wed, 01 Jul 2009 08:23:54 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/link.php?id=26542 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/link.php?id=26541 News German Wed, 01 Jul 2009 08:20:38 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/link.php?id=26541 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/link.php?id=26540 News German Wed, 01 Jul 2009 08:16:28 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/link.php?id=26540 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/link.php?id=26543 News German - Video Wed, 01 Jul 2009 06:28:38 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/link.php?id=26543 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/link.php?id=26545 News German Sat, 27 Jun 2009 09:08:51 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/link.php?id=26545