Macro | Global Strategy & Investment Trends en-US http://www.dinl.net http://www.dinl.net/images/Logo_DINL_RSS.gif http://www.dinl.net 144 31 2008-08-21 11:14:07 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2350 Without Borders Ronald Reagan once said those are the nine scariest words in the English language. And he’s starting to be proven right. World markets have been watching with bated breath lately as the dynamic duo of Paulson-Bernanke has mounted the Hill (or has been mounted, as it were), on several occasions recently, soothing the markets, politicians, and public with calming words about liquidity, regulation, and “bottoms.” Even the POTUS (that’s ... Guest Article: FitzroyMcLean Wed, 20 Aug 2008 12:20:19 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2349 As we approach the Labor Day recess and finish off the summer to get ready for the end of year trading pattern the market is leaving us in a very familiar spot. We have bounced nicely off the FNM/FRE bailout lows in what is setting up to be either a bear bounce only to collapse or the beginning of a big bull run towards the old highs. We can’t be sure which path the market will take but anticipate the move to be large either way. As you plan your set-ups keep in mind that sentiment and Guest Article: Dominick and oroborean Tue, 19 Aug 2008 19:06:02 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2348 Since 9/11 the US money supply has rocketed by about 70 per cent*. (The Clinton presidency was just as bad). The problem is one of bad economics, not bad investment decisions, wild speculation, the housing boom, the falling dollar, the current account deficit, the domestic deficit, etc. The vast majority of economic pundits have only a dim understanding of the link between the money supply and America's current economic difficulties. As for politicians, the range from the hopelessly ... Guest Article: GerardJackson Tue, 19 Aug 2008 14:30:52 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2347 DZZ Double Gold ETN is a relatively new way to take advantage of gold price action. This gold fund provides double the movement that the GLD ETF or the price of gold does, providing bigger opportunities in the gold sector. I have just recently started to use DZZ ETN for trading and have found it to be very useful, which you will see in the charts below. The fact that it’s a leveraged fund provides more of an opportunity to the small investor, as they can have twice the amount of gold ... Guest Article: ChrisVermeulen Mon, 18 Aug 2008 20:38:10 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2346 (continue reading for details) Just because we haven’t been publishing regular free updates doesn’t mean TTC has been asleep for the past few weeks. Our members have been actively trading this volatile market from both sides as it fluctuates widely day-to-day, whipsawing many while generally trending upwards off the July 15 lows. And, if you read our last few updates, even if you’re not a member, you’ve probably been making some winning trades, too! My early July ... Guest Article: Dominick Mon, 18 Aug 2008 20:20:44 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2345 “The face of the coin has been debased as fast as its value. First the faces of gods were on the coins. Then the faces of kings. Then of presidents. Today it’s only paper. The miracle is that you can still buy things with it.” ~Ian Fleming,   If the recent meltdown in precious metals took you by surprise, you obviously haven’t been reading this update. Since at least late 2007 this update has said the principal risk to precious metals was a dollar ... Guest Article: Oroborean Mon, 18 Aug 2008 20:13:05 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2344 in world gold prices starting in late July knocked the cost of physical metal more than 20% off its record top of mid-March at last week's low point. That level – just above $750 per ounce – also happens to sit right where the uptrend starting in Sept. 2005 now lies. Meaning, for technical analysts at least, either a test (and perhaps collapse) of the bull market...or a screaming opportunity to on the cheap.     As this chart shows – swapping the Dollar ... Guest Article: AdrianAsh Mon, 18 Aug 2008 20:09:32 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2343 Economists who now see American troubles spreading around the world are predicting that foreign central banks will ignore the gathering inflation threat and follow the Fed down the rate cutting path. Similarly, they argue that since the downturn began here, the U.S. recovery will likely be underway while the rest of world is still decelerating. These assumptions have prompted a rally in the dollar, a sell-off in gold, commodities and foreign stocks, and have cast doubts on the ability of ... Guest Article: PeterSchiff Fri, 15 Aug 2008 19:01:25 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2342 August 14 marks Social Security's 73rd birthday--placing it eight years past standard retirement age. But, despite the program's $10-trillion-plus dollar shortfall, no politician dares to suggest that this disastrous program be phased out and retired; all agree on one absolute: Social Security necessary. But is it? Social Security is commonly portrayed as benefiting most, if not all, Americans by providing them "risk-free" financial security in old age. This is a fraud. Guest Article: AlexEpstein Fri, 15 Aug 2008 07:12:54 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2341 The new narrative forming among the Goldilocks crowd is that US economic supremacy reigns once again, as manifest in a reawakened "King Dollar". The US dollar will continue to strengthen, commodity prices will plummet, and the stock market can only rally from here since all of the bad news has already been discounted. The Global Goldilocks view is that the rest of the world slows just enough to dampen commodity pressures and prices, but the world does not slow too much to wreck the ... Guest Article: KurtKasun Thu, 14 Aug 2008 09:51:27 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2340 Despite a series of worrying news items last week, U.S. stock markets managed to deliver strong gains. Time and again, U.S. investors seem to turn lemons into lemonade by assuming each bad data point is an indication that the bottom is in. Is such behavior indicative of a stock market revival or simply evidence of a bear market rally? For those who strive to think logically, the current market is a challenging environment in which to make money. The current volatility has been particularly ... Guest Article: JohnBrowne Thu, 14 Aug 2008 09:47:14 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2339 In most recent we reported that the largest purchases of U.S. government debt by foreign official institutions had occurred in the prior week. Initially, reason for those purchases was a mystery. That is, until Russia decided to crush Georgia militarily. Russian army does not move into invasion mode without some prior preparations. Someone knew what was to happen. Massive amount of money flowed, at a $1.4+ trillion annual rate, into U.S. debt in less than a week. Those financial transactions ... Guest Article: Ned W.Schmidt Wed, 13 Aug 2008 06:54:25 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2338 After falling 40 dollars Monday morning and dragging the HUI down 20 points there are some short-term technical signs that gold may be near a bottom of some sorts. First gold finally fell down hard one morning to start to catch up with the steep drop we have seen in gold stocks. Gold also fell down to its 65-week moving average, which has been its long-term support level for the past six years. First on a very short-term basis the gold stocks started to outperform the metal Monday after ... Guest Article: MichaelSwanson Tue, 12 Aug 2008 20:11:23 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2336 Unlike old soldiers economic fallacies refuse to fade away. Nouriel Roubini, former Clinton White House economist and now a professor of economics, has been busy telling the business news service that the economy is heading for a severe downturn that will be worse than the 2001 recession. Like the vast majority of economists Roubini bases his analysis on Keynesian phantasmagoria. In his view " the U.S. will experience a systemic financial crisis", though he does admit that at 5 per ... Guest Article: GerardJackson Mon, 11 Aug 2008 15:27:16 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2335 Few of us holding gold related investments are happy about the recent performance of the gold price but, in this analyst's view, the appropriate way of looking at this is: "thank goodness the fever is abating". Paradoxically, I am delighted that the gold price is experiencing a downward technical reaction. I would rather that the patient survived than that it died a spectacular pyrrhic death. A pullback in the gold price at this point in time is a very healthy sign. Here's ... Guest Article: BrianBloom Sun, 10 Aug 2008 19:24:58 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2337 Last week's letter was the first part of a speech I have been giving on what I think will be the rise of a new asset class. This week will be the second and final part. Let me set up this section with a few paragraphs from last week's letter and then a quick summary. If you want to read the entire letter from last week, you can go to the . But first, a quick note. George Friedman from Stratfor was at my daughter's wedding rehearsal dinner last night. He had just found out about ... Guest Article: JohnMauldin Sun, 10 Aug 2008 15:54:51 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2334 It's true for almost any commodity: there are a lot of influences pushing on the price, and it's hard to untangle them all. But gold is exceptional. A single factor dominates the market price - and you can measure it. More than any other commodity, gold's price rises (and falls) with demand from investors; the demand from consumers and industrial users is very much a secondary consideration. Or to put it another way, what ultimately controls gold is mass psychology. If you were Guest Article: JeffClark Sun, 10 Aug 2008 15:02:24 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2333 In holding overnight rates steady at 2% this week, the Fed once again put forth its belief that despite a cascade of horrific financial data, the economy was likely to continue to grow slowly and that inflation would moderate. Although wrong on both counts, this view is consistent with the relative optimism that prevails across the country. After nearly two decades of an uninterrupted consumption binge, most Americans simply refuse to believe that anything can seriously derail the American ... Guest Article: PeterSchiff Sat, 09 Aug 2008 13:24:36 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2332 Hmmm? Seems like the gold price itself doesn’t agree with the experts views on where it’s headed. That’s the problem with sticking your neck out. When you get it right you’re a genius. The problem arises when you get it wrong. Unfortunately, at the end of the day, there are no certainties. It’s all about a balance of probabilities. Let’s see if we can get a fresh perspective from the charts. The first (and probably the most important) chart is the 3% X 3 ... Guest Article: BrianBloom Fri, 08 Aug 2008 09:28:13 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/guestArticle.php5?id=2331 As punctuated by General Motors’ second quarter (6/30/08) loss of $15.5 billion, General Motors is a company in financial distress. In its attempt to survive the current economic milieu, management has been looking to throw excess weight overboard to keep the company afloat. GM is trying to ditch its declining Hummer brand, and it has been rumored that Pontiac and Buick may be fire-sale material. (1) The company has been offering massive rebates on its trucks, along with 72-month, 0% ... Guest Article: E. Englund and K. De Coster Fri, 08 Aug 2008 09:08:34 GMT