Macro | Global Strategy & Investment Trends en-US http://www.dinl.net http://www.dinl.net/images/Logo_DINL_RSS.gif http://www.dinl.net 144 31 2008-07-23 18:04:09 http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2045   * The USD strengthens on hawkish Fed comments * CZK drops with 2.5 % against EUR * Today’s main events: BoE minutes (GBP), Fed’s Beige Book (USD), Rate announcement from the RBNZ (NZD)   read more: (0.1 MB) Café DINL: Beans - Pedersen & Varming Wed, 23 Jul 2008 07:41:14 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2044 Hurricane Dolly invigorates oil. Copper higher despite end to strike. CD - Dolly invigorates oil Café DINL: Espresso - Kirsti RingJensen Tue, 22 Jul 2008 12:22:31 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2043 Speculative investors added significantly to their net short dollar positions in the week 8-15 July - which was also the week when EUR/USD reached a new record high. Net short USD positions rose to USD 20.4bn, which is the largest net short position since mid-March. Short dollar positions were added against JPY in particular, and net JPY positions went from close to neutral to the largest net long position of the G10 currencies. Meanwhile, net long EUR positions were kept broadly ... Café DINL: Caffè Latte - KasparKirkegaard Tue, 22 Jul 2008 12:20:19 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2042 A busy week in terms of newsflow is coming to its end. Credit spreads have remained more or less stable compared to last week but equity markets have seen hefty volatility. The US treasury stated that it will support Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Q2 reports from large US banks are a mixed bag. In the Nordic region Q2 reports from the large Nordic banks continue to surprise on the positive side. Weekly Credit Strategy Update Café DINL: Caffè Latte - HenrikArnt Tue, 22 Jul 2008 12:02:54 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2046   * American Express announced their earnings in the after-market and they were worse than expected putting pressure on the US dollar. * Wearing our macroeconomic and risk-aversion goggles make us more bearish on AUD in the longer term. * Returns have so far been very good in July.   read more: (0.1 MB) Café DINL: Beans - Pedersen & Varming Tue, 22 Jul 2008 07:43:08 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2041 (0.3 MB) Café DINL: Beans - ConradSchuller Mon, 21 Jul 2008 09:59:18 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2040 * The British pound traded weaker in the beginning of the European session. Short term we are quite bearish on the pound, but we are still waiting for the timing to be right for a short GBP strategy. * As the macroeconomic calendar is quite empty today, the focus will as last week remain at the earnings announcement from the financial industry. * We expect unchanged key rate in Hungary today. read more: (0.1 MB) Café DINL: Beans - Pedersen & Varming Mon, 21 Jul 2008 09:52:27 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2039 Last week was one of the weakest weeks for oil. No immediate solution to Iran conflict. Soy bean prices are falling due to scrapped export duties - we recommend selling. CD - Oil - its weakest week to date Café DINL: Espresso - Kirsti RingJensen Mon, 21 Jul 2008 09:01:21 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2038 * , upping political pressure on the euro zone's central bank as it struggles to damp rising inflation amid signs of slowing economic growth. (WSJ) * still seem to be attracting demand from this critical constituency in the investment world. Thursday, Freddie said foreign investors -- mostly from Asia and Europe -- provided two-thirds of the bids for a $3 billion issue of notes that mature in two years. More than 85% of the foreign bidders were central banks, which invest much of their ... Café DINL: Cappuccino - JackCrooks Fri, 18 Jul 2008 17:15:24 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2037 Oil - USD 120 a barrel within reach. GDP growth in China slowed further in Q2. CD - Oil - USD 120 a barrel within reach Café DINL: Espresso - JacobJensen Fri, 18 Jul 2008 08:42:18 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2036 * Futures on US stock indices turned red as Merrill Lynch announced disappointing 2nd quarter results after the closing bell rang on Wall Street * The Turkish central bank hikes with another 50 basis points – but less hawkish. * Today’s events: 2nd quarter results from Citigroup Inc, Trade balance (EUR), Producer prices (PLN) read more: (0.1 MB) Café DINL: Beans - Pedersen & Varming Fri, 18 Jul 2008 06:42:06 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2031 Consumer prices surprised significantly on the upside in June. Annual core inflation rose to 2.4% from 2.3% in May. Headline inflation jumped to 5.0% from 4.2% in May, which is the highest level since 1991 US: A June inflation outburst Café DINL: Caffè Latte - PeterAndersen Thu, 17 Jul 2008 23:45:16 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2035 * (Bloomberg) * (Bloomberg) * as Traders Raise Bets on Rate Cuts (Bloomberg) * (Financial Times) "A lowering of the gross market rate of interest as brought about by credit expansion always has the effect of making some projects appear profitable which did not appear before … "However conditions may be, it is certain that no manipulations of the banks can provide the economic system with capital goods. What is needed for a sound expansion of production is addition capital ... Café DINL: Cappuccino - John R.Crooks III Thu, 17 Jul 2008 18:10:48 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2034 (pdf 0.2 MB) Café DINL: Beans - Per-ErikKarlsson Thu, 17 Jul 2008 14:31:01 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2033 Risk aversion is tough on NOK at present. We recommend buying EUR/NOK towards 813.76, stop-loss at 799. read more: Café DINL: Beans - HelleVarming Thu, 17 Jul 2008 14:29:15 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2032 For the second consecutive day, oil was sent sharply down. CD - From BUY! to SELL! in the oil market  Café DINL: Caffè Latte - JacobJensen Thu, 17 Jul 2008 14:08:56 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2030 Final Euroland HICP for June confirmed the flash estimate of a 4.0% y/y increase in consumer prices. Inspecting the detailed numbers we find no convincing signs of any significant pick-up in overall underlying inflation. Euroland: Headline inflation is high but core is still contained Café DINL: Caffè Latte - SørenDijohn Thu, 17 Jul 2008 08:43:38 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2028 The minutes of the June 24-25 monetary policy meeting suggest increasing evidence of disagreement between the hawks and the doves in the FOMC. In several passages of the text the disagreement among the members is stated in an exceptionally explicit way. FOMC: Hawks and doves in bird-fight Café DINL: Caffè Latte - PeterAndersen Thu, 17 Jul 2008 08:41:03 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2027 * Markets made a U-turn as Wells Fargo reported on higher than expected profits in the second quarter * EM: Finally, the good news trumps the bad * Today’s main events: Jobless claims (USD), Rate announcement from Turkey (TRY), 2nd quarter earnings from Merrill Lynch, JP Morgan and Bank of New York read more: (0.1 MB) Café DINL: Beans - Pedersen & Varming Thu, 17 Jul 2008 07:08:25 GMT http://www.dinl.net/transporter/cafeDINL.php5?id=2029 Although the German economy is in relatively good shape, it cannot shield itself from deteriorating export markets. Investments cannot fill the gap, as they are very sensitive to exports, and consumers are suffering from the current high inflation rates, which are eroding purchasing power. Thus the German economy is facing a tough time. Germany: Recession looming Café DINL: Caffè Latte - SørenDijohn Wed, 16 Jul 2008 23:42:17 GMT